Will Australia's good fortune last?

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Will Australia's good fortune last?

Visit Time: 6/10/2010 2:18 AM

Remark:
The wealth and hence the prosperity of Australia depend on mining, which unfortunately is not evenly distributed in every state. The non-mining states at present benefited from the flow-on effect of their good neighbours. Manufacturing in Australia was once the largest employer has now become a non-issue in terms of employment. Excessive reliance on just one major client, China, for our coal and iron ore export, can be seen as a big marketing and business risk.

China has been paving her ways to acquire fuel and resources from various parts of the globe, and this will enable China to hold the trump card in future price negotiation with Australia for coal and iron ore.

Closer examination of China mineral reserves, one will realise that she is using cheap supplies from other countries until their depletion, and by which time, it will be more economical for China to start digging her “backyard”.

Unlike China, progress of India is hindered by the entrenchment of religious believes, and non-centralised governmental system. While India has an advantage at present to be an English-speaking nation, and thus taking the lead in call-centres, IT consulting; such good time will not last long, as the speed of training the Chinese to learn English is progressing fast - mainly due to economy of scale.

To take advantage of Chinese low labour cost, many countries stupidly dig their own graves by helping China to develop at lightning speed as a result of transferring technologies, which cost millions and billions of dollars and many years of research and development.

China will be more than just the factory of the world; she will also be the “office” of the world when white collar or office works are outsourced off-shore to China.

Should the mineral prices go down, office employment outsourced, the Australian economy will decline. The non-mining states will experience the biggest negative impact. The scenario will not be very different from the current situation in America.

China and Kyoto Protocol

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     China and Kyoto Protocol

Visit Time: 13/12/2007 3:48 AM

Remark:

The segment on “China beefs up clean energy drive” was fascinating. I returned from The Silk Road tour recently, and agree wholeheartedly that the air pollution in many Chinese cities is totally unacceptable. In LanzZhou, the world’s most polluted city, blue sky and sunny day were non-existent.

On the positive note, I saw hundreds of wind turbines rising like white gum trees in various parts of the Gobi Desert. A tour guide also mentioned that some natural gas electricity plants had replaced the coal-fired plants.

In GuangZhou, motor cycles are banned in the city, partly to relieve the traffic jam, and partly to reduce the air pollution.

China has set itself very high targets in cleaning up the pollution. China knows the health of the 1.3 billion people will suffer if this is not done sooner - the health care cost will be enormous. If China’s economic growth continues at the present rate, it has the money to invest in its scientists to develop technology to clean up the mess.

China’s willingness to reduce the carbon emission is self-imposed. It makes no pledges to the world about its reduction targets, nor tells the world what to do. Actions are more important than just Kyoto Protocol.

The government’s commitment to the Kyoto Protocol may result in closure of coal mines and power stations, and loss of export income. The map of Victoria could be redrawn with coal mining towns turned into ghost towns.

Global warming - a scare campaign?

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Global warming - a scare campaign?

Visit Time: 4/11/2006 11:52 AM

Remark:

The doomsday prophets are on the go again. After billions if not trillions of dollars had been wasted worldwide on fixing the Y2K problems, the latest scare campaign on global warming is scandalous.

Unscrupulous campaigners convince many Australians that by stopping the opening of new coalmine will help in curbing the greenhouse effect. Unfortunately, these campaigners may be from competing nations, which also export coal. Coal is not only used for power generation; it is also used for the production of steel. Coal mining creates many direct and indirect employment, and brings in export dollars.

While some rural towns in southeastern and southern parts of Australia are experiencing severe droughts, other places in Australia and abroad receive good rainfall and even flood.

Throughout the past many centuries, the exposed area of the sea has not diminished; and if the earth is warming up, the evaporation rate should be higher, and therefore, rain should fall more frequently. The hypothesis about global warming causing severe droughts seems contradictory.

The crystal ball gazers reckon that the global warming will cause the melting of polar ice and drought. The sea level will rise to as much as 25 metres. If that is the case, why should we worry about the drought? Arid land will be flooded and irrigated by the rising water. The Simpson Desert, the Sahara Dessert and the Gobi Dessert, just to name a few, will probably become fertile farmland which could support a couple more billion people.

Before the sea level increases to such height, much of the water will have channelled into the existing river system, or new rivers formed. Part of the water will also fill the artesian wells, which for the past decades, have been drained close to empty for farm use and domestic consumption.

Carbon capturing, carbon trading, recycling, and reducing greenhouse gas emission do not solve global warming. It's about time scientists should think spherically to find a solution in cooling the earth - that's right, GLOBAL COOLING!