China banning lobster import from Australia

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     China banning lobster import from Australia

Visit Time: 1/12/2010 12:42 AM

Remark:

Australia's economy is over dependent on China. China is the largest trading partner of Australia - China relies on our iron ore and coal.

Australia is holding a trump card at present, probably until China owns enough mines in other offshore countries. The decline in students coming from China is a huge blow to our economy, but has been swept under the carpet.

Now, out of blue, Chinese are banning the lobsters. What's next?

Will Australia's good fortune last?

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Will Australia's good fortune last?

Visit Time: 6/10/2010 2:18 AM

Remark:
The wealth and hence the prosperity of Australia depend on mining, which unfortunately is not evenly distributed in every state. The non-mining states at present benefited from the flow-on effect of their good neighbours. Manufacturing in Australia was once the largest employer has now become a non-issue in terms of employment. Excessive reliance on just one major client, China, for our coal and iron ore export, can be seen as a big marketing and business risk.

China has been paving her ways to acquire fuel and resources from various parts of the globe, and this will enable China to hold the trump card in future price negotiation with Australia for coal and iron ore.

Closer examination of China mineral reserves, one will realise that she is using cheap supplies from other countries until their depletion, and by which time, it will be more economical for China to start digging her “backyard”.

Unlike China, progress of India is hindered by the entrenchment of religious believes, and non-centralised governmental system. While India has an advantage at present to be an English-speaking nation, and thus taking the lead in call-centres, IT consulting; such good time will not last long, as the speed of training the Chinese to learn English is progressing fast - mainly due to economy of scale.

To take advantage of Chinese low labour cost, many countries stupidly dig their own graves by helping China to develop at lightning speed as a result of transferring technologies, which cost millions and billions of dollars and many years of research and development.

China will be more than just the factory of the world; she will also be the “office” of the world when white collar or office works are outsourced off-shore to China.

Should the mineral prices go down, office employment outsourced, the Australian economy will decline. The non-mining states will experience the biggest negative impact. The scenario will not be very different from the current situation in America.

Australia is definitely is in technical recession

Name:         CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:      Australia is definitely is in technical recession!

Visit Time:  4/06/2009 10:42 PM

Remark:

Kevin Rudd, Malcolm Turnbull, the interviewers and interviewees did not pick up that Australia is really in technical recession, according to the ABS latest release of March quarter Australian National Accounts. The GDP increase of 0.4% in March quarter is a seasonally adjusted change, against the real trend change of -0.1%. ABS explains in the explanatory notes that “... trend estimates ... are more suitable than either the seasonally adjusted or original data for most business decisions and policy advice”.

RBA and interest rate increase

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     RBA and Interest Rate Increase

Visit Time: 29/05/2008 12:41 AM

Remark:

One of the key determining parameter used by the Reserved Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase interest rate is the inflation rate, which is derived from the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI is calculated based on a "basket of goods". The rising price of petrol has a flow-on effect on other items such as utility, transport, foods, wages, etc. These items, plus petrol are all included in the basket of goods. Using prices to determine inflation rate is rather illogical and nonsensical.

The higher prices, through no fault of the consumers, should not be considered as inflation. Redefinition of the word inflation based on increase in quantity consumed instead of money expended seems to be fairer and equitable.

The action taken by the RBA Board to increase interest rates for the past few months may help to dampen demand in many sectors, but the longer term impact may lead to business closure, loss of employment, rise in marriage / family breakup, mental and psychological suffering, theft and burglary. In addition to its main responsibility in determining monetary policy, and maintaining financial system stability, the RBA should also take on board social consciousness.

The methodology employed by the Reserved Bank of Australia’s (RBA) to increase interest rate can aptly be described by the acronym GIGO – garbage-in-garbage-out.

Chris Richardson, why didn’t you tell John Howard & Peter Costello?

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Chris Richardson, why didn’t you tell John Howard & Peter Costello?

Visit Time: 19/12/2007 2:21 AM

Remark:

It is amazing that Chris Richardson from Access Economics finally realised that the tax cuts were not good for the economy. I wonder why he did not tell John Howard and Peter Costello about his analysis before.

Furthermore, it is not rocket science to add up the promises of Labor Party. If he had announced his calculations and findings to the public prior to the election, just like what he had said on Tuesday 18 December 2007, the swinger voters might have voted differently!

An unhealthy income statement

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     An Unhealthy Income Statement

Visit Time: 13/12/2007 2:48 AM

Remark:

Kevin Rudd is definitely a no-nonsense Prime Minister who keeps to his promises in rectifying the Kyoto Protocol, setting in motion to provide every Year 9 to Year 12 student a laptop computer, and expending $600 million to improve the hospital waiting list.

If he continues on at this pace, he will probably spend $2 billion to roll back the WorkChoices, if that was the amount claimed by Labor what Howard’s government had spent. He will also spend $42 billion for schools funding guarantee, $4 billion on high speed broadband network, $2 billion on health and hospitals reform, $1 billion to secure nation’s water supplies and desalination projects, $100 million for innovative manufacturing, and so on.

He will not forget to handout cheap travel for older Australians and provide a new 50% Education Tax Refund to help families of school-age children meet the costs of education. This Santa Clause will also help aspiring first home buyers save a larger deposit by establishing a new, low tax, First Home Saver Account.

If Australia is a listed public company with the Stock Exchange, I shall not be investing in it. Not a single pledge by Kevin Rudd involves in creating wealth for Australia. A healthy Income Statement (also known as Profit and Loss Statement or Statement of Financial Performance) requires more than just generous expenditure, but most importantly, income generation.

I sincerely hope that the income will be derived from company taxes in a rising economy rather than increased GST or income tax rates, which will badly affect the working families.

Budget and economy 2006/07

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Budget and Economy 2006/07

Visit Time: 9/05/2006 1:39 AM

Remark:

Let commonsense prevail! Anyone with a gramme of grey matter in his/her head would have guessed that the Australian economy is not as robust and strong as many gurus have predicted.

Ask the many underemployed who want to work and do not find additional hours of employment, or the students cum retrenched workers in the TAFE colleges who have no choice but to study again; the rosy pictures are rosy no more.

The first home buyer grant and rebate offered by the State and Federal governments help many to achieve owning their homes sooner, but also created a pool of dreamers who want to own a "house" beyond their reach.

Home ownership is not a necessity - just because one has to live in a house everyday does not mean that he / she needs to own one. Analogously, it does not imply that the same person who eats a variety of food needs to own a grocery shop or a supermarket.

I have spoken to many of my students about the timing of the real estate industry downturn, and the coming of "the recession we do not accept to have". Despite what the treasurer says, and what the Reserved Bank do in the future months, the house prices in Victoria will take a dive. Unemployment rate will continue to climb, leading to big rise in bankruptcy, suicide rate, marriage breakup, burglary and thefts.

History is going to repeat itself - one of the banks is going to be punished heavily for being too generous in lending money to many who can't afford home ownership or property investment.

Tighten your seat belt Australians, we are facing a hard landing!