Online shopping kills employment

Name:          CHAN, Sin Fong
Subject:       Online shopping kills employment
Visit Time:   4/8/2011 at 9:37 PM

Remark:
If everyone boycotts Harvey Norman, Myers, David Jones, JB Hi-Fi, just to name a few large retail outlets, because they charge more to cover costs in employing people, leasing buildings, using utilities, advertising, etc., this will lead to unemployment for many sales staff, tradespeople, property management, service providers, accountants doing tax returns, chefs, waiters, etc. Those who have made savings buying online, if they are still in employment, will eventually pay more taxes to cover the increasing number of welfare recipients.

This stubborn government fails to take note of the long term repercussion of great exodus of in-shop purchases, and refuses to tax all items purchased from overseas under $1000. At present, the cost of collection of these taxes may be more than the taxes receivable, but the scenario will change very soon as on-line transactions continue to grow. Who will be paying for the shortfall of tax revenue?

This is a double whammy. Just be careful, it could be the online shoppers’ job on the chopping board if this unfair practice is allowed to go on unchecked.

Train, retraining but no jobs in sight

Name:          Sin Fong Chan
Subject:       Train, retraining but no jobs in sight
Visit Time:   11/05/2011 6:06 PM

Remark:
Does it mean that people like me mature-age person need to be retrained to work in mining towns in Western Australia or Queensland, go under the house to fix plumbing or up the roof top to install solar panels? I am well-trained, with post-graduate degree and other qualifications, more than qualified to train the untrained, and yet I find myself unemployed.

I had been a sessional TAFE and VET trainer for 15 years, until the international education bubble burst when the government changed policy. More than half of the international students choose not to come to Australia anymore, and therefore, many trainers like me are unemployed.

Life as a sessional teacher is very tough. We are hard working people, and no dole-bludgers. Each term, we queue up, not at Centrelink, but at the course coordinator office asking whether there is any work for us.

Will Australia's good fortune last?

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Will Australia's good fortune last?

Visit Time: 6/10/2010 2:18 AM

Remark:
The wealth and hence the prosperity of Australia depend on mining, which unfortunately is not evenly distributed in every state. The non-mining states at present benefited from the flow-on effect of their good neighbours. Manufacturing in Australia was once the largest employer has now become a non-issue in terms of employment. Excessive reliance on just one major client, China, for our coal and iron ore export, can be seen as a big marketing and business risk.

China has been paving her ways to acquire fuel and resources from various parts of the globe, and this will enable China to hold the trump card in future price negotiation with Australia for coal and iron ore.

Closer examination of China mineral reserves, one will realise that she is using cheap supplies from other countries until their depletion, and by which time, it will be more economical for China to start digging her “backyard”.

Unlike China, progress of India is hindered by the entrenchment of religious believes, and non-centralised governmental system. While India has an advantage at present to be an English-speaking nation, and thus taking the lead in call-centres, IT consulting; such good time will not last long, as the speed of training the Chinese to learn English is progressing fast - mainly due to economy of scale.

To take advantage of Chinese low labour cost, many countries stupidly dig their own graves by helping China to develop at lightning speed as a result of transferring technologies, which cost millions and billions of dollars and many years of research and development.

China will be more than just the factory of the world; she will also be the “office” of the world when white collar or office works are outsourced off-shore to China.

Should the mineral prices go down, office employment outsourced, the Australian economy will decline. The non-mining states will experience the biggest negative impact. The scenario will not be very different from the current situation in America.

Decline in International Education industry

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Decline in International Education industry

Visit Time: 30/09/2010 12:11 AM

Remark:

The change of government policies during mid-2010, and tightening the granting of PR to international students resulted in drastic drop of international students coming to Australia, so much so that the international education and student accommodation industries may face extinction.

The international education generated over $17b "export" income, and created unprecedented demand of sessional teachers, commercial building for classrooms, student accommodation, public transport usage, ethnic groceries, etc.

The spin-off of having these international students is that they provide lowly paid workforce doing all the menial tasks, and long unpalatable hours of work. While this may sound unethical, it does help many businesses to cut cost and increase productivity.

It seems many policy makers neither consult the industry players nor pay any attention to possible negative impact which may realise.

If the unfortunate predictions were to come true, we can see, first, a definite rise in unemployment - from teaching profession to many service providers. Second, many CBD's will experience population drop, and decline in vibrance. Third, the number of passengers using public transport system will also increase.

Real estate reality check

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Real estate reality check

Visit Time: 29/09/2010 11:31 PM

Remark:

The Age quoted "an estimated 60 per cent of Australian banks’ loan books is secured by residential property, ...". With the reversing of foreign investment policy, the demand of residential properties has definitely softened, and the resale values of the over-valued properties will face reality check. There is a good chance the real estate bubble will burst sooner than many expected, not dissimilar to what had happened in the USA.

In total, all small / medium businesses provide over 50% of employment, and many of them at present are not doing well. This can only translate to shaky employment future for many, and uncertain mortgage repayment. If these people were to default, the final selling price may not cover the original loan.

For the past 4-5 years, many people borrowed well beyond their repayment ability in order to secure their dream homes. Unfortunately, further upward movement in interest rates will turn their dreams into nightmares.

Unemployment rate

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Unemployment Rate

Visit Time: 13/08/2010 12:52 AM

Remark:

Statistics records job number increase, but no job loss during the same time. Further, one is considered employed if he / she received payment for 1 hour of work during the survey period.

5.4% unemployment is a myth! ABS should release underemployment rate simultaneously each month instead of once a year!

Unemployment rate will continue to climb

Name:         CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:      Unemployment rate will continue to climb!

Visit Time:  12/06/2009 11:32 AM

Remark:

Statistics do not lie; it is human’s interpretation that bends the truth.

Given the slow climb of unemployment for the past few months prior to May, the fall in unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.5% in April is a sign of bad time, and reveals cracks in the definition of employment / unemployment.

A person is considered employed, by definition, if he works for no less than 1 hour and gets paid during the survey period. This simply means that if a full time worker who works for 35 hours is being replaced by 5 casual workers, each working 1 hour for that week will result in boosting the employment rate by 400% or mathematically,

(5 workers - 1 worker) ÷ 1 worker x 100%

However, the utilised hours has dropped by 85.7% or

(35 hr – 1 hr per worker x 5 workers) ÷ 35 hours x 100%

Many news sources report that businesses have been sacking workers since the downturn. These include labourers, factory workers, office workers, service industry workers, middle management and CEO. The sacking leads to an increase in unemployment rate.

The increase continues until reaching a point whereby a business operator decides to keep the business going, hoping that the bad wind will blow over. The operator may choose to reduce the number of hours of operation, by declaring the existing positions redundant and creating new positions engaging casual workers, or outsourcing the work to contractors, who normally engaged casual workers on demand.

The scenarios above are real and as a result, the employment rate will improve for a short period until a saturation point is reached. Unfortunately, this point is reached rather quickly and the latest release of unemployment rates for May show that the rates are to 5.7% nationwide, and 5.9% for Victoria, respectively.

In June, the rate may fall slightly again to 5.8%, due to the extra spending in April-May which prompted business operators to put on more casual workers. However the rise will resume thereafter when the government handout is expensed. More obvious rise will occur in September-October when the Federal Government’s First Home Buyers Grant Boosts are reduced to half of the original amounts.

This Christmas retail spending is going to be very bleak, and by February 2010 when all the credit card bills for Christmas spending arrive in the post and Council rates are due, the crunch will hit extremely hard. The casual works will disappear, and unemployment rate soar sky high.

Telstra

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Telstra

Visit Time: 22/08/2006 1:11 AM

Remark:

As the largest shareholder, the Federal Government should step in to call for an extraordinary meeting to sack the current management for bringing the Telstra share price to reach the lowest point in nine years.

It is totally disgraceful that the top management gets rewarded for poor performance. The only reward that seems fit is to buy them a one way ticket and stamp on their passport never to return to Australia in their natural lives.

The Federal Government should not sell off Telstra, for whoever controls telecommunication holds the ultimate power in controlling the national intelligence.

The moment the Government let go of Telstra, it will be the time that a foreign takeover will occur - just like what is happening to Coles Myer. Telstra will collapse, and assets stripped. There will also be massive job losses, and privacy cannot be assured.

Queensland had a Dr Death in the health system, Australia has one too in the telecommunication system.

Budget and economy 2006/07

Name:        CHAN, Sin Fong

Subject:     Budget and Economy 2006/07

Visit Time: 9/05/2006 1:39 AM

Remark:

Let commonsense prevail! Anyone with a gramme of grey matter in his/her head would have guessed that the Australian economy is not as robust and strong as many gurus have predicted.

Ask the many underemployed who want to work and do not find additional hours of employment, or the students cum retrenched workers in the TAFE colleges who have no choice but to study again; the rosy pictures are rosy no more.

The first home buyer grant and rebate offered by the State and Federal governments help many to achieve owning their homes sooner, but also created a pool of dreamers who want to own a "house" beyond their reach.

Home ownership is not a necessity - just because one has to live in a house everyday does not mean that he / she needs to own one. Analogously, it does not imply that the same person who eats a variety of food needs to own a grocery shop or a supermarket.

I have spoken to many of my students about the timing of the real estate industry downturn, and the coming of "the recession we do not accept to have". Despite what the treasurer says, and what the Reserved Bank do in the future months, the house prices in Victoria will take a dive. Unemployment rate will continue to climb, leading to big rise in bankruptcy, suicide rate, marriage breakup, burglary and thefts.

History is going to repeat itself - one of the banks is going to be punished heavily for being too generous in lending money to many who can't afford home ownership or property investment.

Tighten your seat belt Australians, we are facing a hard landing!